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  4. Montevideo City Torque vs Cerro Largo

Torque vs Cerro Largo 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 5)

Fair result
TorqueTorque

2–1

Cerro LargoCerro Largo
1.8Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Torque would usually take 1.8 points and Cerro Largo 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Torque.

Torque +1.2 pts vs chancesCerro Largo −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Torque vs Cerro Largo stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Torque

Cerro Largo

8

Shots on target

6

1

Big chances

0

12

Corners

5

4

Yellow cards

3

0

Red cards

2

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Torque and Cerro Largo ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Torque win with 47% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Albion – Torque prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Torque vs Cerro Largo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Torque to win

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Torque ahead at half-time.

Our model 49%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Torque Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Torque 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Torque 2+ goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Cerro Largo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cerro Largo 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Torque vs Cerro Largo 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Torque vs Cerro Largo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Primera Division - Uruguay
TorqueTorque2
Cerro LargoCerro Largo1

Winner

1X 77%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

147%
X30%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT33%67%60%40%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Torque25%75%60%40%
Cerro Largo43%57%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Torque85%15%95%5%
Cerro Largo94%6%98%2%

1st Half

133%
X49%
218%

1st Score

154%
X11%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-X

20%

X-1

19%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.9%

1-1

13.3%

0-0

10.7%

2-1

9.7%

2-0

9.5%

0-1

8.5%

1-2

5.7%

2-2

4.5%

3-0

3.9%

3-1

3.7%

0-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Albion – Torque prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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