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Cerro vs Peñarol

Cerro vs Peñarol 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 7)

Cerro vs Peñarol stats: how the match was played

Primera Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Peñarol had more than twice the shots on target

Cerro

Peñarol

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

The match between Cerro and Peñarol ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Peñarol win with 62% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Liverpool – Peñarol prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Cerro vs Peñarol — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Primera Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Peñarol to win

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 82%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 44%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Cerro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cerro 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 89%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 86.3% of the time (bookmakers said 84.9%).

Peñarol Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Peñarol 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Peñarol 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cerro vs Peñarol 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cerro vs Peñarol. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Cerro1

Peñarol2

Winner

2 62%

BTTS*

No 63%

Correct Score

0-1 18%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

· FT

Primera Division - Uruguay

Cerro1

Peñarol2

Winner

2 62%

BTTS*

No 63%

Correct Score

0-1 18%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

Full Time

112%

X26%

262%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	36%	64%	63%	37%	72%	28%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	36%	64%	63%	37%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	72%	28%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	59%	41%	89%	11%	98%	2%	100%	0%
	20%	80%	53%	47%	79%	21%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	59%	41%	89%	11%
	20%	80%	53%	47%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	98%	2%	100%	0%
	79%	21%	93%	7%

1st Half

112%

X44%

243%

1st Score

124%

X12%

264%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

40%

X-2

21%

X-X

17%

1-1

X-1

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

18.3%

0-2

14.4%

0-0

11.6%

1-1

10.8%

1-2

8.8%

0-3

7.0%

1-0

6.1%

1-3

4.6%

2-1

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Cerro vs Peñarol — Recent Form

Peñarol have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Cerro have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Peñarol

Cerro

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Peñarol

3/5

Cerro

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Peñarol

2/5

Cerro

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Peñarol

3/5

Cerro

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Peñarol

5/5

Cerro

4/5

First Half Result

Peñarol

3/5

Cerro

2/5

Correct Score

Peñarol

1/5

Cerro

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Liverpool – Peñarol prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).