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Venezia vs Lecce 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Smash-and-grab

Lecce won with fewer chances than Venezia

VeneziaVenezia

0–2

LecceLecce
2.3Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Venezia would usually take 1.9 points and Lecce 0.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Venezia.

Venezia −1.9 pts vs chancesLecce +2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Venezia vs Lecce stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Venezia had clearly more shots on target

Venezia

Lecce

7

Shots on target

5

5

Big chances

4

5

Corners

3

1

Yellow cards

3

71%

Possession

29%

The match between Venezia and Lecce ended 0-2. Our AI model predicted a Venezia win at 69% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Udinese – Lecce prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Venezia vs Lecce — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia to win

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 63%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

Venezia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Lecce Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lecce 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Venezia vs Lecce 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Venezia vs Lecce. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
VeneziaVenezia0
LecceLecce2

Winner

1 69%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

2-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

169%
X18%
213%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT17%83%37%63%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT49%51%72%28%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Venezia11%89%33%67%
Lecce53%47%81%19%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Venezia59%41%79%21%
Lecce94%6%98%2%

1st Half

153%
X35%
212%

1st Score

171%
X4%
225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

50%

X-1

19%

X-X

11%

2-2

5%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-X

3%

X-2

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

2-0

10.4%

2-1

9.7%

1-0

9.5%

3-0

8.6%

1-1

8.1%

3-1

6.8%

2-2

4.5%

0-0

4.1%

1-2

3.3%

3-2

3.2%

0-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Udinese – Lecce prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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