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Milan vs Venezia 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
MilanMilan

2–0

VeneziaVenezia
2.3Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Milan would usually take 2.3 points and Venezia 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Milan.

Milan +0.7 pts vs chancesVenezia −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Milan vs Venezia stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Milan had more than twice the shots on target

Milan

Venezia

5

Shots on target

2

8

Big chances

1

2

Corners

3

1

Yellow cards

3

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Milan and Venezia ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Milan win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Milan – Atalanta prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Milan vs Venezia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Milan to win

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Milan ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Milan Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Milan 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Milan 2+ goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.

Venezia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Milan vs Venezia 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Milan vs Venezia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
MilanMilan2
VeneziaVenezia0

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

142%
X27%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Milan28%72%61%39%
Venezia36%64%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Milan84%16%95%5%
Venezia89%11%96%4%

1st Half

131%
X40%
229%

1st Score

148%
X9%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

21%

X-X

15%

X-1

13%

X-2

12%

2-X

7%

1-X

6%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

1-0

11.4%

0-0

8.9%

2-1

8.7%

0-1

8.7%

2-0

7.5%

1-2

7.2%

2-2

5.1%

0-2

4.5%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Milan – Atalanta prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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