Cuiabá vs Avaí 0-1 Score & Prediction Review
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 33)
Avaí won with less than half the chances
Cuiabá0–1
AvaíOn these chances Cuiabá would usually take 2.3 points and Avaí 0.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Cuiabá.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Cuiabá vs Avaí stats: how the match was played
Serie B
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Cuiabá had clearly more shots on target
Cuiabá
Avaí
5
Shots on target
3
1
Big chances
1
13
Corners
5
1
Yellow cards
2
66%
Possession
34%
Cuiabá vs Avaí — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Cuiabá to win
WrongOur track record
In 615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.4% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 5,708 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Cuiabá ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 549 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 34.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Cuiabá 2+ goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Cuiabá 0–1 goals.
Our track record
In 1,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Avaí 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Cuiabá vs Avaí 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cuiabá vs Avaí. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Cuiabá0
Avaí1Winner
1 69%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Cuiabá0Avaí1Winner
1 69%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 54% | 46% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 86% | 44% | 56% |
| 58% | 42% | 89% | 11% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 28% | 89% | 11% |
| 98% | 2% | 100% | 0% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
42%
X-1
23%
X-X
15%
X-2
5%
2-2
5%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
16.3%
2-0
14.2%
2-1
10.6%
1-1
9.8%
3-0
8.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.8%
1-2
3.1%
2-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Cuiabá vs Avaí — Recent Form
Avaí have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table. Cuiabá have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.
Last 5 matches
AvaíCuiabáOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
CuiabáAvaíBoth Teams to Score
CuiabáAvaíOver/Under 2.5 Goals
CuiabáAvaíOver/Under 3.5 Goals
CuiabáAvaíFirst Half Result
CuiabáAvaíCorrect Score
CuiabáAvaí