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Carrarese vs Bari 1908 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
CarrareseCarrarese

1–0

Bari 1908Bari 1908
1.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Carrarese would usually take 1.9 points and Bari 1908 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Carrarese.

Carrarese +1.1 pts vs chancesBari 1908 −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Carrarese vs Bari 1908 stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Carrarese had clearly more shots on target

Carrarese

Bari 1908

6

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

1

7

Corners

3

1

Yellow cards

0

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Carrarese and Bari 1908 ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Carrarese win with 44% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Carrarese – Modena prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Carrarese vs Bari 1908 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Carrarese to win

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,577 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,055 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,209 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Carrarese Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Carrarese 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,423 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Bari 1908 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bari 1908 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Carrarese vs Bari 1908 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Carrarese vs Bari 1908. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
CarrareseCarrarese1
Bari 1908Bari 19080

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

144%
X30%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT37%63%63%37%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT73%27%92%8%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Carrarese29%71%65%35%
Bari 190843%57%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Carrarese87%13%96%4%
Bari 190894%6%99%1%

1st Half

131%
X50%
219%

1st Score

151%
X13%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

20%

X-1

18%

2-2

13%

X-2

11%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.7%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

12.6%

0-1

9.8%

2-0

8.6%

2-1

8.5%

1-2

5.9%

0-2

4.1%

3-0

3.9%

2-2

3.9%

3-1

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Carrarese – Modena prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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