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Calcio Padova vs Modena 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 19)

Smash-and-grab

Calcio Padova won with less than half the chances

Calcio PadovaCalcio Padova

2–0

ModenaModena
1.0Chances (xG)3.2

On these chances Calcio Padova would usually take 0.4 points and Modena 2.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Modena.

Calcio Padova +2.7 pts vs chancesModena −2.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Calcio Padova vs Modena stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Calcio Padova

Modena

6

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

6

3

Corners

12

3

Yellow cards

1

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Calcio Padova and Modena ended 2-0. Our AI model predicted an Modena win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Calcio Padova – Südtirol prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Calcio Padova vs Modena — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Modena to win

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,745 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,110 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,294 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Calcio Padova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Calcio Padova 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 79%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Modena Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Modena 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Calcio Padova vs Modena 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Calcio Padova vs Modena. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
Calcio PadovaCalcio Padova2
ModenaModena0

Winner

X2 75%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

0-1 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

125%
X31%
244%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT38%62%64%36%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT73%27%92%8%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Calcio Padova44%56%78%22%
Modena30%70%65%35%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Calcio Padova94%6%99%1%
Modena87%13%96%4%

1st Half

121%
X45%
233%

1st Score

134%
X13%
253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

25%

X-X

19%

X-2

17%

1-1

13%

X-1

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

15.0%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

12.6%

1-0

10.2%

0-2

8.7%

1-2

8.1%

2-1

5.6%

2-0

4.4%

2-2

4.2%

0-3

3.5%

1-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Calcio Padova – Südtirol prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

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