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  4. Bari 1908 vs Empoli

Bari 1908 vs Empoli 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 28)

Fair result
Bari 1908Bari 1908

2–1

EmpoliEmpoli
1.3Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Bari 1908 would usually take 1.6 points and Empoli 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Empoli.

Bari 1908 +1.5 pts vs chancesEmpoli −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bari 1908 vs Empoli stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Bari 1908

Empoli

5

Shots on target

4

2

Big chances

1

3

Corners

8

2

Yellow cards

1

0

Red cards

1

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Bari 1908 and Empoli ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Bari 1908 win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cesena – Empoli prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Bari 1908 vs Empoli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bari 1908 to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Empoli to win.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,073 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,142 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,344 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,674 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Bari 1908 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bari 1908 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Empoli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Empoli 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,383 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bari 1908 vs Empoli 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bari 1908 vs Empoli. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
Bari 1908Bari 19082
EmpoliEmpoli1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

142%
X28%
230%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Bari 190829%71%64%36%
Empoli37%63%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Bari 190886%14%96%4%
Empoli91%9%98%2%

1st Half

129%
X47%
224%

1st Score

148%
X9%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

20%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.3%

1-0

12.3%

0-1

9.8%

0-0

9.5%

2-1

8.6%

2-0

7.7%

1-2

7.2%

0-2

5.2%

2-2

4.6%

3-1

3.5%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cesena – Empoli prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

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