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  4. Südtirol vs Virtus Entella

Südtirol vs Virtus Entella 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result
SüdtirolSüdtirol

1–0

Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella
0.8Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Südtirol would usually take 1.0 points and Virtus Entella 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Südtirol.

Südtirol +2.0 pts vs chancesVirtus Entella −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Südtirol vs Virtus Entella stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Virtus Entella had clearly more shots on target

Südtirol

Virtus Entella

2

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

0

1

Corners

5

3

Yellow cards

1

1

Red cards

0

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Südtirol and Virtus Entella ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Südtirol win with 51% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Juve Stabia – Südtirol prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Südtirol vs Virtus Entella — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Südtirol to win

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 41%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Südtirol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Südtirol 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Virtus Entella Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Virtus Entella 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Südtirol vs Virtus Entella 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Südtirol vs Virtus Entella. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
SüdtirolSüdtirol1
Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella0

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

151%
X27%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT34%66%60%40%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Südtirol24%76%59%41%
Virtus Entella46%54%80%20%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Südtirol83%17%94%6%
Virtus Entella94%6%99%1%

1st Half

141%
X41%
219%

1st Score

160%
X10%
230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

17%

X-X

16%

2-2

11%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

15.2%

1-1

12.3%

0-0

10.5%

2-0

10.3%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.4%

1-2

5.0%

3-0

4.6%

3-1

4.1%

2-2

3.8%

0-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Juve Stabia – Südtirol prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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