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Cesena vs Sampdoria 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Robbed

Sampdoria drew despite more chances

CesenaCesena

1–1

SampdoriaSampdoria
1.0Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances Cesena would usually take 0.8 points and Sampdoria 2.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Cesena.

Cesena +0.2 pts vs chancesSampdoria −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cesena vs Sampdoria stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sampdoria had more than twice the shots on target

Cesena

Sampdoria

2

Shots on target

9

4

Big chances

0

0

Corners

12

2

Yellow cards

1

1

Red cards

0

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Cesena and Sampdoria ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Cesena win at 54% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cesena – Avellino prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Cesena vs Sampdoria — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cesena to win

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Cesena Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cesena 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Sampdoria Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sampdoria 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 84%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cesena vs Sampdoria 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cesena vs Sampdoria. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
CesenaCesena1
SampdoriaSampdoria1

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

154%
X28%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT35%65%60%40%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cesena24%76%56%44%
Sampdoria51%49%84%16%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cesena80%20%92%8%
Sampdoria96%4%99%1%

1st Half

143%
X43%
215%

1st Score

163%
X12%
225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

37%

X-1

20%

X-X

17%

2-2

8%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

15.6%

0-0

11.9%

1-1

11.7%

2-0

10.7%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

7.8%

3-0

5.5%

3-1

4.3%

1-2

4.1%

2-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cesena – Avellino prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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