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Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Robbed

Hellas Verona drew despite more chances

Calcio PadovaCalcio Padova

1–1

Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
0.7Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Calcio Padova would usually take 0.6 points and Hellas Verona 2.2; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Hellas Verona.

Calcio Padova +0.4 pts vs chancesHellas Verona −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Hellas Verona had clearly more shots on target

Calcio Padova

Hellas Verona

2

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

1

2

Corners

6

4

Yellow cards

1

39%

Possession

61%

The match between Calcio Padova and Hellas Verona ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Calcio Padova win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Calcio Padova – Südtirol prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Calcio Padova to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Hellas Verona to win.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,527 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,138 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,328 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Calcio Padova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Calcio Padova 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,708 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Hellas Verona Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hellas Verona 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,276 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Calcio Padova vs Hellas Verona. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
Calcio PadovaCalcio Padova1
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

139%
X29%
232%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Calcio Padova31%69%65%35%
Hellas Verona35%65%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Calcio Padova87%13%96%4%
Hellas Verona90%10%97%3%

1st Half

130%
X50%
221%

1st Score

150%
X10%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

22%

X-1

17%

2-2

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.1%

1-0

11.6%

0-0

10.2%

0-1

9.9%

2-1

8.5%

1-2

7.3%

2-0

6.9%

0-2

5.5%

2-2

5.0%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Calcio Padova – Südtirol prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

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