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Avellino vs Sampdoria

Avellino vs Sampdoria 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

Avellino

4–1

Sampdoria

1.2Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Avellino would usually take 1.5 points and Sampdoria 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Avellino.

Avellino +1.5 pts vs chancesSampdoria −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Avellino vs Sampdoria stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Avellino

Sampdoria

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Avellino and Sampdoria ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Avellino win with 44% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sampdoria – Arezzo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Avellino vs Sampdoria — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Avellino to win

Correct

Our model 44%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 3,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,140 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 79%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,682 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,251 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Avellino Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Avellino 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Sampdoria Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sampdoria 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,383 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Avellino vs Sampdoria 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Avellino vs Sampdoria. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Avellino4

Sampdoria1

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Avellino4

Sampdoria1

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

144%

X29%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%	69%	31%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	69%	31%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	39%	61%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%
	39%	61%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

131%

X46%

223%

1st Score

151%

X10%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

21%

X-1

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

11%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

13.4%

1-0

12.3%

0-0

9.9%

0-1

9.3%

2-1

8.9%

2-0

8.4%

1-2

6.6%

2-2

4.6%

0-2

4.4%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Avellino vs Sampdoria — Recent Form

Avellino have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Sampdoria have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Avellino

Sampdoria

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Sampdoria

4/5

Avellino

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Sampdoria

2/5

Avellino

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Sampdoria

1/5

Avellino

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Sampdoria

3/5

Avellino

3/5

First Half Result

Sampdoria

1/5

Avellino

1/5

Correct Score

Sampdoria

0/5

Avellino

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sampdoria – Arezzo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).