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Calcio Padova vs Carrarese

Calcio Padova vs Carrarese 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

Calcio Padova

0–2

Carrarese

1.0Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Calcio Padova would usually take 1.3 points and Carrarese 1.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Calcio Padova.

Calcio Padova −1.3 pts vs chancesCarrarese +1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Calcio Padova vs Carrarese stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Carrarese had more than twice the shots on target

Calcio Padova

Carrarese

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Calcio Padova and Carrarese ended 0-2. Our AI model predicted a Calcio Padova win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Calcio Padova – Virtus Entella prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Calcio Padova vs Carrarese — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Calcio Padova to win

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,556 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,103 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 104 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.3% than to our 60–65%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 81%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 1,745 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.3% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 1,225 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Calcio Padova Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Calcio Padova 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Calcio Padova 2+ goals.

Our model 66%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 76 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 51.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 65–70%.

Carrarese Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Carrarese 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,313 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Calcio Padova vs Carrarese 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Calcio Padova vs Carrarese. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Calcio Padova0

Carrarese2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Calcio Padova0

Carrarese2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

140%

X30%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	35%	65%	61%	39%	71%	29%	91%	9%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	35%	65%	61%	39%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	71%	29%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	31%	69%	66%	34%	88%	12%	96%	4%
	39%	61%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	31%	69%	66%	34%
	39%	61%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	88%	12%	96%	4%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

126%

X52%

222%

1st Score

146%

X11%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

23%

1-1

19%

X-1

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

13%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.3%

1-0

13.1%

0-0

11.4%

0-1

10.6%

2-1

8.2%

2-0

7.7%

1-2

6.5%

0-2

5.2%

2-2

4.6%

3-0

3.3%

3-1

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Calcio Padova vs Carrarese — Recent Form

Calcio Padova have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table. Carrarese have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Calcio Padova

Carrarese

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Carrarese

2/5

Calcio Padova

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Carrarese

3/5

Calcio Padova

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Carrarese

4/5

Calcio Padova

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Carrarese

5/5

Calcio Padova

4/5

First Half Result

Carrarese

4/5

Calcio Padova

2/5

Correct Score

Carrarese

1/5

Calcio Padova

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Calcio Padova – Virtus Entella prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).