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Zürich vs Lugano 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Super League - Season 2022/2023 (Round 36)

Fair result
ZürichZürich

2–3

LuganoLugano
1.8Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Zürich would usually take 1.5 points and Lugano 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Zürich.

Zürich −1.5 pts vs chancesLugano +1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Zürich vs Lugano stats: how the match was played

Super League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Zürich had clearly more shots on target

Zürich

Lugano

6

Shots on target

4

2

Big chances

3

5

Corners

4

4

Yellow cards

2

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Zürich and Lugano ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a Zürich win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Young Boys – Zürich prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Zürich vs Lugano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Super League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Zürich to win

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,839 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,538 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,631 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Zürich Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Zürich 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Lugano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,285 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Zürich vs Lugano 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Zürich vs Lugano. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Super League - Switzerland
ZürichZürich2
LuganoLugano3

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

142%
X27%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Zürich27%73%60%40%
Lugano35%65%69%31%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Zürich0%0%0%0%
Lugano0%0%0%0%

1st Half

131%
X44%
225%

1st Score

148%
X8%
244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-X

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

1-0

10.8%

2-1

8.5%

0-1

8.4%

0-0

8.2%

2-0

7.6%

1-2

7.0%

2-2

5.2%

0-2

5.0%

3-1

4.1%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Young Boys – Zürich prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

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