Banker as favourites
8/9Lugano won 8 of 9 as favourites (league 51%).
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Thun vs Lugano Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Super League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Riding their luck
Lugano are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+9points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Lugano 50% to winThun 27%
Thun vs Lugano score prediction
Super League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.4 goals in total, in line with the Super League average of 3.4.
goals expected
Thun1.5Lugano1.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Thun vs Lugano: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Thun vs Lugano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Super League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lugano to win
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 2,497 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 56%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 5,722 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 5,327 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 3,982 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lugano ahead at half-time
Our model 38%Bookmakers 39%
Our track record
In 2,047 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Thun Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Thun 0–1 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 1,582 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Lugano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lugano 2+ goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 1,011 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Thun vs Lugano — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Thun vs Lugano. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Thun–
Lugano–Winner
2 53%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Thun–Lugano–Winner
2 53%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
124%
X23%
253%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41% | 59% | 71% | 29% |
| 20% | 80% | 48% | 52% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
| 73% | 27% | 88% | 12% |
1st Half
126%
X36%
238%
1st Score
141%
X6%
253%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
32%
1-1
15%
X-2
14%
X-X
13%
X-1
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.2%
0-1
9.7%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.4%
0-0
6.0%
2-1
5.9%
1-0
5.8%
2-2
5.3%
0-3
5.1%
1-3
5.1%
2-0
3.4%
2-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Thun vs Lugano: the stats that stand out
Super League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Lugano: banker as favourites, fast starters and brick wall
8/9Fast starters
8/10Lugano scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Brick wall
4/10Lugano kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 19%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Thun vs Lugano: attack vs defence
Super League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Super League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Thun: weak attack, weak defence (1.54 xG, 1.97 xGA a game)
- Lugano: good attack, good defence (1.83 xG, 1.19 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Thun vs Lugano form and luck check
Super League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Super League gamesLugano are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- ThunBookmakers: 27% to win today.−1.4
- LuganoBookmakers: 50% to win today.Clinical · +11 goals+9.0
Last 5 matches
LuganoW
W
W
D
W
ThunL
W
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Thun 7th of 12 · Lugano 2nd of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Thun vs Lugano: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Super League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Super League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredThun and Lugano games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Super League average (68%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 68%
Thun8 of 10
Lugano9 of 10
BTTSleague 65%
Thun7 of 10
Lugano6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 240 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Thun vs Lugano corners, cards and goal times
Super League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Super League average
Thun
Lugano
5.6
Corners won · league 5.2
6.0
5.6
Corners conceded · league 5.2
4.0
2.5
Cards · league 2.4
2.5
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 2.4
2.0
35%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
39%
18%
Goals after 75' · league 22%
32%
44%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
43%
19%
Conceded after 75' · league 22%
0%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Thun3/5
Lugano4/5
Both Teams to Score
Thun4/5
Lugano3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Thun4/5
Lugano5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Thun3/5
Lugano0/5
First Half Result
Thun2/5
Lugano2/5
Correct Score
Thun0/5
Lugano0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction