Banker as favourites
8/9Lugano won 8 of 9 as favourites (league 53%).
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Lugano vs Basel Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Super League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Riding their luck
Lugano are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+10points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Lugano 64% to winBasel 17%
Lugano vs Basel score prediction
Super League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Lugano expected to create clearly more
3.3 goals in total, a little under the Super League average of 3.4.
goals expected
Lugano2.1
Basel1.2Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Lugano vs Basel: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Lugano vs Basel — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Super League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lugano to win
Our model 48%Bookmakers 64%
Our track record
In 3,493 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 69%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 405 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 65.4%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.0% of the time (bookmakers said 71.3%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 3.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 182 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.4% than to our 50–55%.
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lugano ahead at half-time
Our model 40%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 1,981 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.4% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Lugano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lugano 2+ goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Basel Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Basel 0–1 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 1,582 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Lugano vs Basel — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Lugano vs Basel. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Lugano–
Basel–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 69%
Correct Score
2-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
Lugano–Basel–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 69%
Correct Score
2-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
Full Time
148%
X21%
231%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 12% | 88% | 28% | 72% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 39% | 61% | 65% | 35% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 81% | 43% | 57% |
| 31% | 69% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 32% | 84% | 16% |
| 79% | 21% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
140%
X35%
225%
1st Score
156%
X3%
242%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
32%
2-2
16%
X-1
13%
X-X
10%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
2-1
8.8%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
7.1%
1-2
6.8%
3-1
5.5%
1-0
5.4%
2-0
5.0%
3-2
4.5%
2-3
4.0%
0-1
3.9%
1-3
3.8%
3-0
3.5%
0-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Lugano vs Basel: the stats that stand out
Super League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Lugano: banker as favourites, fast starters and brick wall
8/9Fast starters
8/10Lugano scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Brick wall
4/10Lugano kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 19%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Lugano vs Basel: attack vs defence
Super League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Super League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Lugano: good attack, good defence (1.75 xG, 1.33 xGA a game)
- Basel: weak attack, weak defence (1.35 xG, 1.75 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Lugano vs Basel form and luck check
Super League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Super League gamesLugano are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- LuganoBookmakers: 64% to win today.Clinical · +13 goals+10.3
- BaselBookmakers: 17% to win today.−0.6
Last 5 matches
LuganoW
W
W
W
D
BaselD
L
L
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Lugano 2nd of 12 · Basel 8th of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Lugano vs Basel: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Super League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Super League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredLugano and Basel games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Super League average (67%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 67%
Lugano9 of 10
Basel8 of 10
BTTSleague 65%
Lugano6 of 10
Basel7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 234 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Lugano vs Basel corners, cards and goal times
Super League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameLugano score late
Lugano
Basel
5.3
Corners won · league 5.2
4.1
4.3
Corners conceded · league 5.2
5.4
2.6
Cards · league 2.4
2.5
2.0
Opponents' cards · league 2.4
2.8
34%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
50%
34%
Goals after 75' · league 22%
6%
50%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
40%
13%
Conceded after 75' · league 22%
35%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Basel2/5
Lugano4/5
Both Teams to Score
Basel3/5
Lugano3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Basel4/5
Lugano5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Basel2/5
Lugano0/5
First Half Result
Basel1/5
Lugano2/5
Correct Score
Basel0/5
Lugano0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction