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Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lučani 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Superliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Robbed

Radnik Surdulica drew despite more chances

Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica

1–1

Mladost LučaniMladost Lučani
2.2Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Radnik Surdulica would usually take 2.2 points and Mladost Lučani 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Radnik Surdulica.

Radnik Surdulica −1.2 pts vs chancesMladost Lučani +0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lučani stats: how the match was played

Superliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Radnik Surdulica had more than twice the shots on target

Radnik Surdulica

Mladost Lučani

7

Shots on target

3

3

Big chances

1

5

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

1

68%

Possession

33%

The match between Radnik Surdulica and Mladost Lučani ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Radnik Surdulica win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crvena Zvezda – Mladost Lučani prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lučani — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Superliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Radnik Surdulica to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Radnik Surdulica Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Radnik Surdulica 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Mladost Lučani Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mladost Lučani 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lučani 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lučani. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Superliga - Serbia
Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica1
Mladost LučaniMladost Lučani1

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

148%
X28%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Radnik Surdulica25%75%58%42%
Mladost Lučani41%59%76%24%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Radnik Surdulica82%18%94%6%
Mladost Lučani92%8%98%2%

1st Half

135%
X47%
218%

1st Score

157%
X10%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-X

19%

X-1

17%

2-2

11%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

1-0

12.5%

0-0

9.8%

2-1

9.4%

2-0

9.0%

0-1

7.9%

1-2

5.9%

2-2

4.5%

3-1

4.3%

3-0

4.0%

0-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crvena Zvezda – Mladost Lučani prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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