Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Superliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
Novi Pazar drew despite more chances
Novi Pazar1–1
Mačva ŠabacOn these chances Novi Pazar would usually take 2.3 points and Mačva Šabac 0.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Novi Pazar.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac stats: how the match was played
Superliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Novi Pazar had more than twice the shots on target
Novi Pazar
Mačva Šabac
6
Shots on target
1
2
Big chances
2
8
Corners
2
2
Yellow cards
2
66%
Possession
34%
Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Superliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Novi Pazar to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Novi Pazar 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Novi Pazar 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Mačva Šabac 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Novi Pazar1
Mačva Šabac1Winner
1X 78%
BTTS*
No 55%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Novi Pazar1Mačva Šabac1Winner
1X 78%
BTTS*
No 55%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 36% | 64% | 62% | 38% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 71% | 29% | 91% | 9% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 61% | 39% |
| 45% | 55% | 80% | 20% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
X-X
21%
X-1
16%
2-2
12%
X-2
9%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
14.5%
1-1
13.0%
0-0
12.7%
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
9.0%
1-2
5.1%
2-2
4.1%
3-0
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
3-1
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score