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Oulu vs Ilves 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 18)

Fair result
OuluOulu

1–0

IlvesIlves
1.3Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Oulu would usually take 1.5 points and Ilves 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Oulu.

Oulu +1.5 pts vs chancesIlves −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Oulu vs Ilves stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Oulu had more than twice the shots on target

Oulu

Ilves

4

Shots on target

2

2

Big chances

1

5

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

1

47%

Possession

54%

The match between Oulu and Ilves ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Oulu win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Oulu – VPS prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Oulu vs Ilves — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Oulu to win

Correct
Our model 41%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Oulu Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Oulu 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Ilves Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Oulu vs Ilves 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Oulu vs Ilves. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Veikkausliiga - Finland
OuluOulu1
IlvesIlves0

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

141%
X24%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT20%80%42%58%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT54%46%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Oulu25%75%56%44%
Ilves29%71%61%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Oulu80%20%93%7%
Ilves84%16%94%6%

1st Half

132%
X40%
228%

1st Score

152%
X5%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

19%

X-1

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.9%

2-1

8.9%

1-2

8.1%

1-0

7.9%

0-1

7.0%

2-2

6.4%

2-0

5.9%

0-0

5.1%

0-2

4.9%

3-1

4.9%

1-3

4.0%

3-2

3.3%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Oulu – VPS prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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