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Gnistan vs TPS 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 22)
Gnistan drew despite more chances
Gnistan1–1
TPSOn these chances Gnistan would usually take 2.1 points and TPS 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Gnistan.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Gnistan vs TPS stats: how the match was played
Veikkausliiga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Gnistan
TPS
5
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
2
11
Corners
4
1
Yellow cards
2
47%
Possession
53%
Gnistan vs TPS — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Veikkausliiga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Gnistan to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Gnistan 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
TPS 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Gnistan vs TPS 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gnistan vs TPS. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Gnistan1
TPS1Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
Gnistan1TPS1Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 50% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 49% | 51% |
| 32% | 68% | 62% | 38% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 26% | 90% | 10% |
| 84% | 16% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
X-1
16%
2-2
16%
X-X
13%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.6%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
5.4%
0-0
4.4%
3-2
4.1%
0-2
4.0%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
3.7%
2-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score