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France vs England 4-6 Score & Prediction Review

World Cup - Season 2026 3rd Place Final (Knock Out)

Fair result

France

4–6

England

2.2Chances (xG)3.3

On these chances France would usually take 0.9 points and England 1.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: France.

France −0.9 pts vs chancesEngland +1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

France vs England stats: how the match was played

World Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

France

England

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

46%

Possession

54%

The match between France and England ended 4-6. Our AI model predicted a France win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

France vs England — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · World Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

France to win

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

France Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

France 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: France 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

England Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

England 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

France vs England 4-6 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for France vs England. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

World Cup - World

France4

England6

Winner

1X 62%

BTTS*

Yes 66%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

· FT

World Cup - World

France4

England6

Winner

1X 62%

BTTS*

Yes 66%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

140%

X23%

238%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	15%	85%	34%	66%	45%	55%	71%	29%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	15%	85%	34%	66%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	45%	55%	71%	29%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	53%	47%	76%	24%	90%	10%
	27%	73%	55%	45%	78%	22%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	53%	47%
	27%	73%	55%	45%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	90%	10%
	78%	22%	91%	9%

Correct Score

1-1

9.5%

2-1

8.0%

1-2

7.9%

2-2

6.7%

0-1

5.8%

1-0

5.7%

0-2

4.8%

2-0

4.8%

3-1

4.7%

1-3

4.4%

3-2

4.0%

2-3

3.8%

0-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score