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Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg 5-1 Score & Prediction Review

Admiral Bundesliga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 10)

Fair result
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau

5–1

HartbergHartberg
3.0Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Austria Lustenau would usually take 2.5 points and Hartberg 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Hartberg.

Austria Lustenau +0.5 pts vs chancesHartberg −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg stats: how the match was played

Admiral Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Austria Lustenau had more than twice the shots on target

Austria Lustenau

Hartberg

11

Shots on target

3

5

Big chances

1

3

Corners

5

0

Yellow cards

2

0

Red cards

1

62%

Possession

39%

The match between Austria Lustenau and Hartberg ended 5-1. Our AI model predicted an Hartberg win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Austria Lustenau – Grazer AK prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Admiral Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hartberg to win

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,654 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,785 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,368 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,023 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.7% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Austria Lustenau Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Austria Lustenau 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Hartberg Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hartberg 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Hartberg 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 853 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.5% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg 5-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Admiral Bundesliga - Austria
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau5
HartbergHartberg1

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

131%
X25%
244%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Austria Lustenau32%68%64%36%
Hartberg23%77%54%46%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Austria Lustenau0%0%0%0%
Hartberg0%0%0%0%

1st Half

125%
X39%
235%

1st Score

143%
X5%
251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

1-1

16%

X-2

16%

X-X

13%

X-1

10%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.7%

1-2

9.0%

0-1

8.6%

2-1

7.7%

1-0

6.9%

0-2

6.9%

2-2

6.2%

0-0

5.4%

1-3

4.8%

2-0

4.7%

0-3

3.4%

2-3

3.4%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Austria Lustenau – Grazer AK prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

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