Holstein Kiel vs Nürnberg 2-3 Score & Prediction Review
2. Bundesliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 26)
Nürnberg won with less than half the chances
Holstein Kiel2–3
NürnbergOn these chances Holstein Kiel would usually take 2.1 points and Nürnberg 0.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Holstein Kiel.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Holstein Kiel vs Nürnberg stats: how the match was played
2. Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Holstein Kiel had clearly more shots on target
Holstein Kiel
Nürnberg
7
Shots on target
5
4
Big chances
2
7
Corners
1
3
Yellow cards
5
61%
Possession
39%
Holstein Kiel vs Nürnberg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · 2. Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Holstein Kiel to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.8% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,921 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,624 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Holstein Kiel 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,426 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Nürnberg 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,661 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Holstein Kiel vs Nürnberg 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Holstein Kiel vs Nürnberg. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Holstein Kiel2
Nürnberg3Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Holstein Kiel2Nürnberg3Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 75% | 58% | 42% |
| 32% | 68% | 65% | 35% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18% | 93% | 7% |
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
21%
2-2
21%
X-X
15%
X-1
13%
X-2
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
0-1
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
5.8%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.4%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score