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  4. DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli

DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

2. Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result
DSC Arminia BielefeldDSC Arminia Bielefeld

2–2

St. PauliSt. Pauli
0.7Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances DSC Arminia Bielefeld would usually take 1.2 points and St. Pauli 1.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: DSC Arminia Bielefeld.

DSC Arminia Bielefeld −0.2 pts vs chancesSt. Pauli −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli stats: how the match was played

2. Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

St. Pauli had more than twice the shots on target

DSC Arminia Bielefeld

St. Pauli

2

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

2

3

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

3

43%

Possession

57%

The match between DSC Arminia Bielefeld and St. Pauli ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a DSC Arminia Bielefeld win at 57% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: DSC Arminia Bielefeld – Osnabrück prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 2. Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

DSC Arminia Bielefeld to win

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

DSC Arminia Bielefeld ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

DSC Arminia Bielefeld Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

DSC Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: DSC Arminia Bielefeld 0–1 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

St. Pauli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Pauli 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs St. Pauli. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
2. Bundesliga - Germany
DSC Arminia BielefeldDSC Arminia Bielefeld2
St. PauliSt. Pauli2

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

157%
X23%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
DSC Arminia Bielefeld18%82%46%54%
St. Pauli44%56%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
DSC Arminia Bielefeld72%28%88%12%
St. Pauli93%7%98%2%

1st Half

141%
X40%
219%

1st Score

161%
X6%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

19%

X-X

13%

2-2

10%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.9%

1-0

10.7%

2-1

10.3%

2-0

9.3%

0-0

6.2%

3-0

6.2%

3-1

5.8%

0-1

5.7%

1-2

5.3%

2-2

5.0%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: DSC Arminia Bielefeld – Osnabrück prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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