Always chasing
7/10Derby County conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
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Millwall vs Derby County Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 13)
Unlucky
Derby County are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Millwall vs Derby County score prediction
Championship
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Millwall expected to create clearly more
2.7 goals in total, in line with the Championship average of 2.7.
goals expected
Millwall1.7Derby County1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →The match Millwall vs Derby County will be played on Saturday, October 31 as part of the 2026/2027 season. This fixture will be played in the Round 13 of the Championship, played in England. On this page, you’ll find our detailed football prediction for Millwall vs Derby County, including full-time result (1X2) probabilities, draw chances, and additional betting insights. Our predictions are generated using data-driven models that analyze team form, recent performances, and historical trends to deliver reliable match forecasts.
Millwall vs Derby County — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Millwall vs Derby County. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Millwall–
Derby County–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Millwall–Derby County–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
145%
X26%
229%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 56% | 44% |
| 35% | 65% | 69% | 31% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
132%
X44%
224%
1st Score
150%
X7%
244%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
X-1
16%
X-X
16%
2-2
14%
X-2
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.4%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
7.9%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
4.7%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Millwall vs Derby County: the stats that stand out
Championship
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Derby County: always chasing, shot-shy and leaky
7/10Shot-shy
4/10Derby County failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 24%).
Leaky
1/10Derby County kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 24%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Millwall vs Derby County: attack vs defence
Championship
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Championship teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Millwall: good attack, weak defence (1.54 xG, 1.48 xGA a game)
- Derby County: weak attack, weak defence (1.20 xG, 1.56 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Millwall vs Derby County form and luck check
Championship
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Championship gamesDerby County are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- Millwall−1.9
- Derby CountyWasteful · −3 goals−5.0
Last 5 matches
MillwallD
L
W
D
D
Derby CountyL
L
D
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Millwall 6th of 24 · Derby County 17th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Millwall vs Derby County: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Championship
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Championship gamesBTTS = both teams scoredMillwall games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Championship average (54%), Derby County games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 54%
Millwall8 of 10
Derby County5 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
Millwall5 of 10
Derby County5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 562 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Millwall vs Derby County corners, cards and goal times
Championship
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameMillwall score late
Millwall
Derby County
5.9
Corners won · league 5.2
5.7
6.1
Corners conceded · league 5.2
5.3
2.1
Cards · league 1.9
2.3
2.7
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.9
44%
Goals before half-time · league 47%
50%
38%
Goals after 75' · league 21%
25%
33%
Conceded before half-time · league 47%
61%
22%
Conceded after 75' · league 21%
22%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Derby County2/5
Millwall1/5
Both Teams to Score
Derby County3/5
Millwall3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Derby County4/5
Millwall3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Derby County4/5
Millwall2/5
First Half Result
Derby County2/5
Millwall2/5
Correct Score
Derby County2/5
Millwall0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction