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Birmingham City vs Sheffield United 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2025/2026 (Round 38)

Robbed

Birmingham City drew despite more chances

Birmingham CityBirmingham City

1–1

Sheffield UnitedSheffield United
1.9Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Birmingham City would usually take 2.1 points and Sheffield United 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Birmingham City.

Birmingham City −1.1 pts vs chancesSheffield United +0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Birmingham City vs Sheffield United stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Birmingham City had more than twice the shots on target

Birmingham City

Sheffield United

7

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

3

7

Corners

0

2

Yellow cards

4

0

Red cards

1

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Birmingham City and Sheffield United ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Birmingham City win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bristol City – Sheffield United prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Birmingham City vs Sheffield United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Birmingham City to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,442 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,410 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,921 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,624 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Birmingham City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Birmingham City 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,785 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Sheffield United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sheffield United 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Birmingham City vs Sheffield United 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Birmingham City vs Sheffield United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Birmingham CityBirmingham City1
Sheffield UnitedSheffield United1

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

148%
X25%
227%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Birmingham City21%79%53%47%
Sheffield United36%64%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Birmingham City78%22%92%8%
Sheffield United89%11%97%3%

1st Half

134%
X42%
225%

1st Score

151%
X6%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

16%

X-1

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-0

10.1%

2-1

9.9%

2-0

7.8%

0-1

7.0%

1-2

6.9%

0-0

6.2%

2-2

5.6%

3-1

5.1%

3-0

4.4%

0-2

3.9%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bristol City – Sheffield United prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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