Derby County vs Stoke City Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2025/2026 (Round 41)
Derby County vs Stoke City — Championship Prediction Accuracy
Season 2025/2026 · Round 41 · Regular Season
Full-Time Result →
Derby County-25.3% Below implied probability
Stoke City+9.2% Above implied probability
┊ 44.6% Implied Probability
Both Teams To Score →
Derby County-0.2% Near implied probability
Stoke City-23.9% Below implied probability
┊ 53.9% Implied Probability
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →
Derby County+9.9% Above implied probability
Stoke City+5% Above implied probability
┊ 53.7% Implied Probability
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →
Derby County+22.3% Strongly above implied probability
Stoke City+30.5% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 62.9% Implied Probability
First Half Result →
Derby County-20.8% Below implied probability
Stoke City+25.2% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 38.9% Implied Probability
Correct Score →
Derby CountyStoke CityOur AI model tracks prediction accuracy for Derby County and Stoke City across 6 betting markets. The cards above compare per-team accuracy against a bookmaker-implied probability baseline for each betting market.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals predictions for Stoke City hit at 82% accuracy — that's 30.5% above the bookmaker baseline of 62.9%, suggesting genuine betting value.
On the other hand, Full-Time Result predictions for Derby County sit 25.3% below the bookmaker baseline — pricing is sharper here, so extra caution is warranted.
Derby County vs Stoke City Match Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Derby County vs Stoke City. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
| 1 | 48% | |
| X | 27% | |
| 2 | 25% |
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
| 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
| 1 | 32% | |
| X | 46% | |
| 2 | 23% |
| 1-1 | 1-X | X-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 5% | 16% | |
| 2-2 | 2-X | X-2 | |
| 14% | 5% | 10% | |
| 1-2 | X-X | 2-1 | |
| 2% | 19% | 3% |
| 1 | 52% | |
| X | 9% | |
| 2 | 39% |
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25% | 75% | 58% | 42% |
 | 40% | 60% | 75% | 25% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
| 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.6% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| 1 | 48% | |
| X | 27% | |
| 2 | 25% |
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
| 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
| 1 | 32% | |
| X | 46% | |
| 2 | 23% |
| 1-1 | 1-X | X-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 5% | 16% | |
| 2-2 | 2-X | X-2 | |
| 14% | 5% | 10% | |
| 1-2 | X-X | 2-1 | |
| 2% | 19% | 3% |
| 1 | 52% | |
| X | 9% | |
| 2 | 39% |
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 75% | 58% | 42% |
| 40% | 60% | 75% | 25% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
| 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.6% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% |
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Derby County vs Stoke City — Prediction Form & Streaks
Derby County have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Stoke City have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.
Our football prediction algorithm has been reading Derby County well in the Over/Under 3.5 Goals market, landing 4 correct predictions in a row. This level of consistency suggests a strong betting opportunity worth considering.
Full-Time Result
Derby CountyStoke CityBoth Teams To Score
Derby CountyStoke CityOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Derby CountyStoke CityOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Derby CountyStoke CityFirst Half Result
Derby CountyStoke CityCorrect Score
Derby CountyStoke CityDerby County & Stoke City Teams in Best Form
Derby CountyStoke City