Southampton vs Derby County Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2025/2026 (Round 42)
Southampton vs Derby County — Championship Prediction Accuracy
Season 2025/2026 · Round 42 · Regular Season
Full-Time Result →
Derby County-21.5% Below implied probability
Southampton-8.1% Near implied probability
┊ 44.6% Implied Probability
Both Teams To Score →
Derby County+1.7% Above implied probability
Southampton+37.5% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 54.1% Implied Probability
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →
Derby County+11.7% Strongly above implied probability
Southampton+0.2% Above implied probability
┊ 53.7% Implied Probability
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →
Derby County+20.2% Strongly above implied probability
Southampton+10.9% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 62.4% Implied Probability
First Half Result →
Derby County-16% Below implied probability
Southampton+12.7% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 38.7% Implied Probability
Correct Score →
Derby CountySouthamptonOur AI model tracks prediction accuracy for Southampton and Derby County across 6 betting markets. The cards above compare per-team accuracy against a bookmaker-implied probability baseline for each betting market.
Both Teams To Score predictions for Southampton hit at 74% accuracy — that's 37.5% above the bookmaker baseline of 54.1%, suggesting genuine betting value.
On the other hand, Full-Time Result predictions for Derby County sit 21.5% below the bookmaker baseline — pricing is sharper here, so extra caution is warranted.
Southampton vs Derby County Match Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Southampton vs Derby County. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
| 1 | 57% | |
| X | 23% | |
| 2 | 20% |
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
| 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
| 1 | 39% | |
| X | 41% | |
| 2 | 20% |
| 1-1 | 1-X | X-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 5% | 18% | |
| 2-2 | 2-X | X-2 | |
| 11% | 5% | 8% | |
| 1-2 | X-X | 2-1 | |
| 2% | 15% | 3% |
| 1 | 59% | |
| X | 6% | |
| 2 | 35% |
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17% | 83% | 46% | 54% |
 | 44% | 56% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
| 72% | 28% | 89% | 11% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
| 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 3-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| 1 | 57% | |
| X | 23% | |
| 2 | 20% |
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
| 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
| 1 | 39% | |
| X | 41% | |
| 2 | 20% |
| 1-1 | 1-X | X-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 5% | 18% | |
| 2-2 | 2-X | X-2 | |
| 11% | 5% | 8% | |
| 1-2 | X-X | 2-1 | |
| 2% | 15% | 3% |
| 1 | 59% | |
| X | 6% | |
| 2 | 35% |
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 46% | 54% |
| 44% | 56% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
| 72% | 28% | 89% | 11% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
| 1-0 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.0% |
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Southampton vs Derby County — Prediction Form & Streaks
Southampton have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Derby County have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.
Our football prediction algorithm has been reading Southampton well in the Over/Under 3.5 Goals market, landing 4 correct predictions in a row. This level of consistency suggests a strong betting opportunity worth considering.
Full-Time Result
Derby CountySouthamptonBoth Teams To Score
Derby CountySouthamptonOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Derby CountySouthamptonOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Derby CountySouthamptonFirst Half Result
Derby CountySouthamptonCorrect Score
Derby CountySouthamptonSouthampton & Derby County Teams in Best Form
SouthamptonDerby County