2. Leagues
  3. Championship
  4. Cardiff City vs Stoke City

Cardiff City vs Stoke City 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Robbed

Cardiff City drew despite more chances

Cardiff CityCardiff City

1–1

Stoke CityStoke City
2.9Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Cardiff City would usually take 2.3 points and Stoke City 0.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Cardiff City.

Cardiff City −1.3 pts vs chancesStoke City +0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cardiff City vs Stoke City stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cardiff City had clearly more shots on target

Cardiff City

Stoke City

7

Shots on target

4

6

Big chances

2

7

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

2

71%

Possession

29%

The match between Cardiff City and Stoke City ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Cardiff City win at 56% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stoke City – Preston North End prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Cardiff City vs Stoke City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City to win

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Cardiff City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Stoke City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stoke City 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cardiff City vs Stoke City 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cardiff City vs Stoke City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Cardiff CityCardiff City1
Stoke CityStoke City1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

156%
X23%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%43%57%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cardiff City17%83%45%55%
Stoke City43%57%75%25%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cardiff City71%29%88%12%
Stoke City91%9%98%2%

1st Half

142%
X37%
220%

1st Score

162%
X6%
232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

18%

X-X

14%

2-2

11%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

2-1

10.1%

1-0

9.9%

2-0

9.1%

3-1

6.2%

3-0

5.9%

0-0

5.8%

1-2

5.5%

2-2

5.4%

0-1

5.2%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stoke City – Preston North End prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores