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Watford vs Stoke City 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result
WatfordWatford

1–2

Stoke CityStoke City
0.5Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Watford would usually take 0.5 points and Stoke City 2.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Watford.

Watford −0.5 pts vs chancesStoke City +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Watford vs Stoke City stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Stoke City had more than twice the shots on target

Watford

Stoke City

2

Shots on target

6

0

Big chances

2

5

Corners

8

2

Yellow cards

2

41%

Possession

59%

The match between Watford and Stoke City ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Watford win at 52% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stoke City – Preston North End prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Watford vs Stoke City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Watford to win

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Watford ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Watford Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Watford 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Stoke City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stoke City 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Watford vs Stoke City 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Watford vs Stoke City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
WatfordWatford1
Stoke CityStoke City2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

152%
X26%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Watford22%78%54%46%
Stoke City43%57%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Watford80%20%93%7%
Stoke City93%7%98%2%

1st Half

141%
X38%
221%

1st Score

159%
X8%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

17%

X-X

16%

2-2

13%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

12.8%

1-1

12.2%

2-1

9.9%

2-0

9.7%

0-0

8.1%

0-1

7.3%

1-2

5.8%

3-0

5.1%

3-1

4.7%

2-2

4.6%

0-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stoke City – Preston North End prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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