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Nacional vs Tigre

Nacional vs Tigre 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 Knockout Round Play-offs (Knock Out)

Fair result

Nacional

0–3

Tigre

0.6Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Nacional would usually take 1.0 points and Tigre 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Nacional.

Nacional −1.0 pts vs chancesTigre +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Nacional vs Tigre stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Tigre had more than twice the shots on target

Nacional

Tigre

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

39%

Possession

61%

The match between Nacional and Tigre ended 0-3. Our AI model predicted a Nacional win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Nacional vs Tigre — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional to win

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 83%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 49%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Nacional Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Nacional 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Tigre Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigre 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Nacional vs Tigre 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Nacional vs Tigre. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Copa Sudamericana - South America

Nacional0

Tigre3

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

· FT

Copa Sudamericana - South America

Nacional0

Tigre3

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

144%

X29%

227%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	37%	63%	64%	36%	73%	27%	92%	8%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	37%	63%	64%	36%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	73%	27%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	30%	70%	66%	34%	88%	12%	96%	4%
	43%	57%	78%	22%	94%	6%	99%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	30%	70%	66%	34%
	43%	57%	78%	22%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	88%	12%	96%	4%
	94%	6%	99%	2%

1st Half

131%

X49%

221%

1st Score

153%

X12%

235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

20%

X-1

18%

2-2

13%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-0

14.7%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

12.0%

0-1

10.8%

2-0

9.1%

2-1

8.1%

1-2

5.9%

0-2

4.6%

2-2

3.6%

3-0

3.3%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score