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Bolívar vs Grêmio 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 Knockout Round Play-offs (Knock Out)
Bolívar3–2
GrêmioOn these chances Bolívar would usually take 2.0 points and Grêmio 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bolívar.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Bolívar vs Grêmio stats: how the match was played
Copa Sudamericana
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Bolívar had more than twice the shots on target
Bolívar
Grêmio
10
Shots on target
5
8
Big chances
4
6
Corners
6
0
Yellow cards
2
55%
Possession
45%
Bolívar vs Grêmio — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Copa Sudamericana
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Bolívar to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Bolívar ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).
Our model’s pick
Bolívar 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Grêmio 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Bolívar vs Grêmio 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bolívar vs Grêmio. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Bolívar3
Grêmio2Winner
1 64%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
2-0 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Bolívar3Grêmio2Winner
1 64%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
2-0 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 51% | 49% | 74% | 26% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 86% | 38% | 62% |
| 50% | 51% | 79% | 21% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 36% | 82% | 18% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
45%
X-1
19%
X-X
11%
2-2
8%
X-2
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
3%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-0
10.0%
1-0
9.5%
1-1
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
4.6%
2-2
4.6%
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.3%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score