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Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Sudamericana - Season 2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Robbed

Bragantino drew despite more chances

Atlético MineiroAtlético Mineiro

2–2

BragantinoBragantino
1.0Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances Atlético Mineiro would usually take 0.8 points and Bragantino 2.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Mineiro.

Atlético Mineiro +0.2 pts vs chancesBragantino −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino stats: how the match was played

Copa Sudamericana

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Bragantino had more than twice the shots on target

Atlético Mineiro

Bragantino

4

Shots on target

9

0

Big chances

3

5

Corners

10

1

Yellow cards

2

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Atlético Mineiro and Bragantino ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Atlético Mineiro win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Torque – Atlético Mineiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Sudamericana

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Mineiro to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Atlético Mineiro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Mineiro 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Bragantino Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bragantino 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Copa Sudamericana - South America
Atlético MineiroAtlético Mineiro2
BragantinoBragantino2

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

150%
X26%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Atlético Mineiro23%78%55%45%
Bragantino42%58%76%24%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Atlético Mineiro81%19%93%7%
Bragantino92%8%98%2%

1st Half

136%
X44%
220%

1st Score

156%
X8%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

19%

X-X

16%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-0

12.5%

1-1

12.4%

2-1

9.7%

2-0

9.3%

0-0

8.3%

0-1

7.6%

1-2

6.1%

3-0

4.8%

2-2

4.6%

3-1

4.4%

0-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Torque – Atlético Mineiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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