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Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

DFB Pokal - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)

Fair result
Rot-Weiss EssenRot-Weiss Essen

2–0

St. PauliSt. Pauli
1.9Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Rot-Weiss Essen would usually take 2.1 points and St. Pauli 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: St. Pauli.

Rot-Weiss Essen +0.9 pts vs chancesSt. Pauli −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli stats: how the match was played

DFB Pokal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Rot-Weiss Essen had more than twice the shots on target

Rot-Weiss Essen

St. Pauli

7

Shots on target

2

3

Big chances

2

7

Corners

1

2

Yellow cards

2

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Rot-Weiss Essen and St. Pauli ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Rot-Weiss Essen win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rot-Weiss Essen – RB Leipzig prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · DFB Pokal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rot-Weiss Essen to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: St. Pauli to win.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 28%

Our track record

In 1,063 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 3,111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Rot-Weiss Essen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rot-Weiss Essen 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

St. Pauli Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Pauli 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: St. Pauli 2+ goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 630 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
DFB Pokal - Germany
Rot-Weiss EssenRot-Weiss Essen2
St. PauliSt. Pauli0

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

142%
X23%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%38%62%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%48%76%24%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Rot-Weiss Essen25%75%54%46%
St. Pauli30%70%60%40%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Rot-Weiss Essen77%23%91%9%
St. Pauli81%19%93%7%

1st Half

132%
X41%
227%

1st Score

153%
X5%
242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

20%

X-1

14%

X-X

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

9.8%

2-1

8.9%

1-2

7.9%

1-0

7.0%

2-2

6.3%

0-1

6.2%

2-0

5.6%

0-0

4.9%

0-2

4.4%

3-1

4.4%

3-0

4.2%

1-3

3.5%

3-2

3.2%

0-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rot-Weiss Essen – RB Leipzig prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

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