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AF Elbasani vs BATE 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 1st Qualifying Round (Qualifying)
AF Elbasani vs BATE stats: how the match was played
Europa Conference League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
AF Elbasani had more than twice the shots on target
AF Elbasani
BATE
5
Shots on target
2
6
Corners
4
1
Yellow cards
1
AF Elbasani vs BATE — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa Conference League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
AF Elbasani to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: AF Elbasani ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
AF Elbasani 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: AF Elbasani 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
BATE 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
AF Elbasani vs BATE 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for AF Elbasani vs BATE. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
AF Elbasani1
BATE1Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
AF Elbasani1BATE1Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26% | 74% | 58% | 42% |
 | 42% | 58% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-X
19%
X-1
17%
2-2
13%
X-2
9%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
12.4%
1-1
11.8%
0-0
9.3%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.5%
3-1
4.4%
0-2
4.1%
2-2
4.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score