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Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 Play-offs (Qualifying)

Fair result
LuganoLugano

2–1

Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv
1.8Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Lugano would usually take 2.0 points and Maccabi Tel Aviv 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lugano.

Lugano +1.0 pts vs chancesMaccabi Tel Aviv −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lugano had more than twice the shots on target

Lugano

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2

Shots on target

1

3

Big chances

1

0

Corners

4

0

Yellow cards

0

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Lugano and Maccabi Tel Aviv ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Lugano win with 47% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Getafe – Lugano prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano to win

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Lugano Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Lugano 0–1 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Maccabi Tel Aviv Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa Conference League - Europe
LuganoLugano2
Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv1

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

147%
X25%
228%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%39%61%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%48%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Lugano21%79%49%51%
Maccabi Tel Aviv34%66%65%35%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Lugano74%26%90%10%
Maccabi Tel Aviv86%14%95%5%

1st Half

136%
X40%
224%

1st Score

157%
X5%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

2-2

17%

X-1

16%

X-X

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

2-1

9.4%

1-0

8.0%

1-2

7.0%

2-0

6.7%

2-2

6.5%

0-1

5.5%

3-1

5.0%

0-0

4.9%

3-0

4.4%

3-2

3.9%

0-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Getafe – Lugano prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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