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Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda

Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result

Lugano

3–2

Crvena Zvezda

2.4Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Lugano would usually take 1.7 points and Crvena Zvezda 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lugano.

Lugano +1.3 pts vs chancesCrvena Zvezda −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Lugano

Crvena Zvezda

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

41%

Possession

59%

The match between Lugano and Crvena Zvezda ended 3-2. Our AI model predicted an Crvena Zvezda win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crvena Zvezda – Inter Club d'Escaldes prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).

Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crvena Zvezda to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Lugano to win.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 27%

Our track record

In 374 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 947 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 40%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Lugano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Crvena Zvezda Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Crvena Zvezda 0–1 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 843 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.5% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Lugano3

Crvena Zvezda2

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Lugano3

Crvena Zvezda2

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 65%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

132%

X22%

246%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	35%	65%	49%	51%	73%	27%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	35%	65%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	49%	51%	73%	27%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	33%	67%	61%	39%	82%	18%	93%	7%
	22%	78%	49%	51%	74%	26%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	33%	67%	61%	39%
	22%	78%	49%	51%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	93%	7%
	74%	26%	89%	11%

1st Half

122%

X40%

238%

1st Score

135%

X4%

261%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

33%

X-2

16%

1-1

14%

X-X

12%

X-1

10%

1-X

1-2

2-X

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

9.2%

1-2

9.0%

0-1

7.5%

2-1

7.2%

2-2

6.2%

0-2

6.1%

1-0

5.0%

1-3

4.8%

0-3

4.2%

2-3

4.1%

0-0

4.1%

2-0

3.7%

3-1

3.6%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Lugano

2/5

Crvena Zvezda

0/2

Both Teams to Score

Lugano

4/5

Crvena Zvezda

2/2

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Lugano

3/5

Crvena Zvezda

2/2

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Lugano

2/5

Crvena Zvezda

0/2

First Half Result

Lugano

3/5

Crvena Zvezda

2/2

Correct Score

Lugano

1/5

Crvena Zvezda

0/2

correct predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crvena Zvezda – Inter Club d'Escaldes prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).