Riga vs Kairat 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result

Riga

1–1

Kairat

2.0Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Riga would usually take 1.5 points and Kairat 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Riga.

Riga −0.5 pts vs chancesKairat −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Riga vs Kairat stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Riga had more than twice the shots on target

Riga

Kairat

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

64%

Possession

36%

The match between Riga and Kairat ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Riga win at 69% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atalanta – Kairat prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).

Riga vs Kairat — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Riga to win

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.4% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 804 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Riga ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

Riga Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Riga 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Riga 0–1 goals.

Our model 63%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.9% than to our 60–65%.

Kairat Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kairat 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 85%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 1,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Riga vs Kairat 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Riga vs Kairat. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Riga1

Kairat1

Winner

1 69%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

2-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Riga1

Kairat1

Winner

1 69%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

2-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

169%

X18%

212%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	21%	79%	43%	57%	55%	45%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	21%	79%	43%	57%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	12%	88%	37%	63%	63%	37%	81%	19%
	56%	44%	84%	16%	96%	4%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	12%	88%	37%	63%
	56%	44%	84%	16%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	63%	37%	81%	19%
	96%	4%	99%	1%

1st Half

155%

X32%

213%

1st Score

172%

X5%

223%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

49%

X-1

18%

X-X

10%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

2-0

11.7%

1-0

11.5%

2-1

9.2%

1-1

9.0%

3-0

8.5%

3-1

6.5%

0-0

5.2%

0-1

4.2%

2-2

3.7%

1-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Riga vs Kairat — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Riga

1/5

Kairat

1/2

Both Teams to Score

Riga

3/5

Kairat

1/2

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Riga

1/5

Kairat

1/2

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Riga

5/5

Kairat

1/2

First Half Result

Riga

2/5

Kairat

0/2

Correct Score

Riga

3/5

Kairat

0/2

correct predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atalanta – Kairat prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).