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Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

J-League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Robbed

Tokyo drew despite more chances

Shimizu S-PulseShimizu S-Pulse

1–1

TokyoTokyo
0.7Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Shimizu S-Pulse would usually take 0.7 points and Tokyo 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Tokyo.

Shimizu S-Pulse +0.4 pts vs chancesTokyo −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo stats: how the match was played

J-League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Tokyo had clearly more shots on target

Shimizu S-Pulse

Tokyo

3

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

4

4

Corners

3

0

Yellow cards

0

44%

Possession

57%

The match between Shimizu S-Pulse and Tokyo ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Tokyo win at 45% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Shimizu S-Pulse – Machida Zelvia prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · J-League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tokyo to win

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Shimizu S-Pulse Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shimizu S-Pulse 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Tokyo Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tokyo 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Tokyo 2+ goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Tokyo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
J-League - Japan
Shimizu S-PulseShimizu S-Pulse1
TokyoTokyo1

Winner

X2 73%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

127%
X28%
245%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Shimizu S-Pulse41%59%75%25%
Tokyo27%73%61%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Shimizu S-Pulse92%8%98%2%
Tokyo84%16%95%5%

1st Half

119%
X47%
235%

1st Score

135%
X10%
255%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

X-X

20%

X-2

16%

1-1

13%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

0-1

12.7%

0-0

9.9%

1-0

8.9%

0-2

8.8%

1-2

8.7%

2-1

6.3%

2-0

4.5%

2-2

4.4%

0-3

3.9%

1-3

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Shimizu S-Pulse – Machida Zelvia prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

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