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Ulsan vs Incheon United 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

K-League 1 - Season 2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
UlsanUlsan

1–2

Incheon UnitedIncheon United
1.3Chances (xG)2.4

On these chances Ulsan would usually take 0.8 points and Incheon United 2.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Ulsan.

Ulsan −0.8 pts vs chancesIncheon United +1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ulsan vs Incheon United stats: how the match was played

K-League 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Incheon United had more than twice the shots on target

Ulsan

Incheon United

3

Shots on target

7

1

Big chances

3

2

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

4

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Ulsan and Incheon United ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Ulsan win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Incheon United – Jeju United prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Ulsan vs Incheon United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · K-League 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ulsan to win

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Ulsan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ulsan 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Incheon United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Incheon United 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 71%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ulsan vs Incheon United 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ulsan vs Incheon United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
K-League 1 - South Korea
UlsanUlsan1
Incheon UnitedIncheon United2

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

141%
X28%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Ulsan28%72%63%37%
Incheon United36%64%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Ulsan86%14%96%4%
Incheon United91%9%98%2%

1st Half

130%
X46%
224%

1st Score

148%
X9%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

18%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.3%

1-0

11.8%

0-1

9.5%

0-0

9.3%

2-1

9.1%

1-2

7.8%

2-0

7.1%

0-2

5.1%

2-2

5.0%

3-1

3.6%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Incheon United – Jeju United prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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