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Gwangju vs Sangju Sangmu 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

K-League 1 - Season 2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
GwangjuGwangju

1–1

Sangju SangmuSangju Sangmu
0.6Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Gwangju would usually take 1.1 points and Sangju Sangmu 1.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Sangju Sangmu.

Gwangju −0.1 pts vs chancesSangju Sangmu −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Gwangju vs Sangju Sangmu stats: how the match was played

K-League 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sangju Sangmu had more than twice the shots on target

Gwangju

Sangju Sangmu

1

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

0

1

Corners

11

1

Yellow cards

0

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Gwangju and Sangju Sangmu ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Sangju Sangmu win at 55% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sangju Sangmu – Daejeon Citizen prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Gwangju vs Sangju Sangmu — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · K-League 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sangju Sangmu to win

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,506 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,197 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 4,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,724 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Gwangju Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gwangju 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Sangju Sangmu Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sangju Sangmu 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Gwangju vs Sangju Sangmu 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gwangju vs Sangju Sangmu. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
K-League 1 - South Korea
GwangjuGwangju1
Sangju SangmuSangju Sangmu1

Winner

2 55%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

120%
X25%
255%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Gwangju46%54%80%20%
Sangju Sangmu20%80%52%48%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Gwangju95%5%99%1%
Sangju Sangmu78%22%92%8%

1st Half

118%
X45%
238%

1st Score

133%
X8%
259%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

33%

X-X

17%

X-2

17%

1-1

10%

X-1

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

13.2%

1-1

11.6%

0-2

10.7%

1-2

9.5%

0-0

8.3%

1-0

7.1%

0-3

5.6%

1-3

5.4%

2-1

5.0%

2-2

4.3%

2-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sangju Sangmu – Daejeon Citizen prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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