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Leganés vs Eldense 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
LeganésLeganés

1–0

EldenseEldense
1.4Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Leganés would usually take 1.5 points and Eldense 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Leganés.

Leganés +1.6 pts vs chancesEldense −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Leganés vs Eldense stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Leganés had clearly more shots on target

Leganés

Eldense

6

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

0

0

Corners

8

1

Yellow cards

0

53%

Possession

47%

The match between Leganés and Eldense ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Leganés win with 51% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Real Valladolid – Eldense prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Leganés vs Eldense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leganés to win

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Leganés Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leganés 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Eldense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Eldense 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Leganés vs Eldense 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Leganés vs Eldense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga 2 - Spain
LeganésLeganés1
EldenseEldense0

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

151%
X27%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Leganés23%77%55%45%
Eldense44%56%79%21%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Leganés80%20%93%7%
Eldense94%6%99%1%

1st Half

134%
X46%
219%

1st Score

155%
X9%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

19%

X-1

18%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.2%

1-1

12.1%

2-0

9.7%

0-0

9.4%

2-1

9.4%

0-1

7.9%

1-2

5.4%

3-0

5.1%

3-1

4.7%

2-2

4.4%

0-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Real Valladolid – Eldense prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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