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Burgos vs Ceuta 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result
BurgosBurgos

3–1

CeutaCeuta
0.6Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Burgos would usually take 1.0 points and Ceuta 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Burgos.

Burgos +2.0 pts vs chancesCeuta −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Burgos vs Ceuta stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Ceuta had clearly more shots on target

Burgos

Ceuta

2

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

1

1

Corners

7

3

Yellow cards

2

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Burgos and Ceuta ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Burgos win with 57% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ceuta – Real Oviedo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Burgos vs Ceuta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burgos to win

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Burgos ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Burgos Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burgos 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Burgos 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Ceuta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ceuta 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Burgos vs Ceuta 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Burgos vs Ceuta. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga 2 - Spain
BurgosBurgos3
CeutaCeuta1

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

157%
X26%
217%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Burgos21%79%53%48%
Ceuta51%49%83%17%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Burgos78%22%92%8%
Ceuta96%4%99%1%

1st Half

139%
X44%
217%

1st Score

160%
X10%
230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

19%

X-X

18%

2-2

10%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.9%

2-0

11.6%

1-1

11.1%

0-0

10.2%

2-1

9.5%

0-1

6.5%

3-0

6.4%

3-1

4.8%

1-2

4.6%

2-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Ceuta – Real Oviedo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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