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Las Palmas vs Burgos

Las Palmas vs Burgos 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

Las Palmas

1–2

Burgos

1.0Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Las Palmas would usually take 1.5 points and Burgos 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Las Palmas.

Las Palmas −1.5 pts vs chancesBurgos +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Las Palmas vs Burgos stats: how the match was played

La Liga 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Las Palmas

Burgos

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

63%

Possession

37%

The match between Las Palmas and Burgos ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Las Palmas win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Burgos – Sabadell prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Las Palmas vs Burgos — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Las Palmas to win

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.8% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 82%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,251 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Las Palmas Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Las Palmas 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Burgos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burgos 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,601 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Las Palmas vs Burgos 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Las Palmas vs Burgos. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

La Liga 2 - Spain

Las Palmas1

Burgos2

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

· FT

La Liga 2 - Spain

Las Palmas1

Burgos2

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 72%

Full Time

146%

X30%

225%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	35%	65%	62%	38%	72%	28%	91%	9%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	35%	65%	62%	38%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	72%	28%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	28%	72%	63%	37%	86%	14%	96%	4%
	44%	56%	78%	22%	94%	6%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	28%	72%	63%	37%
	44%	56%	78%	22%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	86%	14%	96%	4%
	94%	6%	99%	1%

1st Half

133%

X47%

220%

1st Score

154%

X12%

234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

23%

X-1

16%

2-2

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-0

14.2%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

12.1%

0-1

9.2%

2-0

9.2%

2-1

8.4%

1-2

5.8%

3-0

4.1%

2-2

4.0%

0-2

3.9%

3-1

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Las Palmas vs Burgos — Recent Form

Burgos have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Las Palmas have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Burgos

Las Palmas

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Las Palmas

3/5

Burgos

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Las Palmas

2/5

Burgos

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Las Palmas

2/5

Burgos

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Las Palmas

2/5

Burgos

4/5

First Half Result

Las Palmas

0/5

Burgos

1/5

Correct Score

Las Palmas

0/5

Burgos

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Burgos – Sabadell prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).