Banker as favourites
9/10FC Barcelona won 9 of 10 as favourites (league 56%).
FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés
3.6goals expected · La Liga average 2.8
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bookmakers: over 2.5 goals 79%
FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés score prediction
La Liga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.6 goals expected
3.6 goals in total: more goals than a typical La Liga game (average 2.8).
goals expected
FC Barcelona2.8
Deportivo Alavés0.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona to win
Our model 78%Bookmakers 88%
Our track record
In 141 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.1% of the time (bookmakers said 80.7%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 60%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 79%
Our track record
In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 261 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona ahead at half-time
Our model 68%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.
FC Barcelona Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona 2+ goals
Our model 70%Bookmakers 86%
Our track record
In 2,664 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Deportivo Alavés Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Deportivo Alavés 0–1 goals
Our model 90%Bookmakers 83%
Our track record
In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
FC Barcelona–
Deportivo Alavés–Winner
1 78%
BTTS*
No 60%
Correct Score
2-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
FC Barcelona–Deportivo Alavés–Winner
1 78%
BTTS*
No 60%
Correct Score
2-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
178%
X15%
27%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 68% | 32% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 90% | 30% | 70% |
| 70% | 30% | 90% | 10% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 47% | 72% | 28% |
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
168%
X23%
29%
1st Score
173%
X6%
220%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
62%
X-1
15%
X-X
6%
2-2
4%
1-X
3%
X-2
3%
2-1
3%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-0
13.2%
1-0
12.6%
3-0
10.4%
0-0
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
2-1
5.8%
1-1
5.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés: the stats that stand out
La Liga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%FC Barcelona: banker as favourites, always on the scoresheet and fast starters
9/10Always on the scoresheet
0/10FC Barcelona scored in all of their last 10 (league 24% fail to score).
Fast starters
7/10FC Barcelona scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés: attack vs defence
La Liga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other La Liga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- FC Barcelona: good attack, good defence (2.70 xG, 0.88 xGA a game)
- Deportivo Alavés: weak attack, good defence (1.43 xG, 1.18 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés form and luck check
La Liga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 La Liga gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- FC BarcelonaBookmakers: 88% to win today.Clinical · +8 goals−0.4
- Deportivo AlavésBookmakers: 3% to win today.−3.5
Last 5 matches
FC BarcelonaL
W
W
W
W
Deportivo AlavésD
L
L
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: FC Barcelona 1st of 20 · Deportivo Alavés 9th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
La Liga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 La Liga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredFC Barcelona games go over 2.5 goals more often than the La Liga average (52%), Deportivo Alavés games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
FC Barcelona9 of 10
Deportivo Alavés5 of 10
BTTSleague 57%
FC Barcelona6 of 10
Deportivo Alavés6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 380 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés corners, cards and goal times
La Liga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.8
- Cards: league 2.4
- Goals before half-time: league 42%
- Goals after 75': league 25%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FC Barcelona4/5
Deportivo Alavés2/5
Both Teams to Score
FC Barcelona3/5
Deportivo Alavés4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
FC Barcelona5/5
Deportivo Alavés3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
FC Barcelona1/5
Deportivo Alavés5/5
First Half Result
FC Barcelona3/5
Deportivo Alavés4/5
Correct Score
FC Barcelona0/5
Deportivo Alavés1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction