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Espanyol vs Real Oviedo 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 27)

Robbed

Espanyol drew despite more chances

EspanyolEspanyol

1–1

Real OviedoReal Oviedo
2.6Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Espanyol would usually take 2.5 points and Real Oviedo 0.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Espanyol.

Espanyol −1.5 pts vs chancesReal Oviedo +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Espanyol vs Real Oviedo stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Espanyol had more than twice the shots on target

Espanyol

Real Oviedo

9

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

1

8

Corners

0

3

Yellow cards

2

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Espanyol and Real Oviedo ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Espanyol win at 49% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Racing Santander – Espanyol prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Espanyol vs Real Oviedo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Espanyol to win

Wrong
Our model 49%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Espanyol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Espanyol 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Real Oviedo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Oviedo 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,570 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Espanyol vs Real Oviedo 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Espanyol vs Real Oviedo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
EspanyolEspanyol1
Real OviedoReal Oviedo1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

149%
X27%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Espanyol24%76%57%43%
Real Oviedo41%59%76%24%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Espanyol82%18%94%6%
Real Oviedo93%7%98%2%

1st Half

133%
X44%
222%

1st Score

153%
X8%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-X

18%

X-1

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

12.8%

1-1

12.6%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

9.1%

0-0

8.5%

0-1

8.2%

1-2

6.2%

2-2

4.7%

3-0

4.6%

3-1

4.4%

0-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Racing Santander – Espanyol prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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