Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)
Rayo Vallecano1–1
Deportivo AlavésOn these chances Rayo Vallecano would usually take 0.8 points and Deportivo Alavés 1.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Rayo Vallecano.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Rayo Vallecano
Deportivo Alavés
3
Shots on target
3
1
Big chances
4
9
Corners
7
1
Yellow cards
2
49%
Possession
51%
Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Rayo Vallecano to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Rayo Vallecano 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Deportivo Alavés 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Rayo Vallecano1
Deportivo Alavés1Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Rayo Vallecano1Deportivo Alavés1Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 34% | 66% | 59% | 41% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 70% | 30% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 63% | 37% |
| 41% | 59% | 75% | 25% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
X-X
18%
X-1
17%
2-2
14%
X-2
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
13.6%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
10.9%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.6%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
4.2%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score