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Sevilla vs Valencia 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result
SevillaSevilla

1–0

ValenciaValencia
1.2Chances (xG)0.2

On these chances Sevilla would usually take 2.2 points and Valencia 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sevilla.

Sevilla +0.8 pts vs chancesValencia −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sevilla vs Valencia stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sevilla had more than twice the shots on target

Sevilla

Valencia

4

Shots on target

0

1

Big chances

0

6

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

2

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Sevilla and Valencia ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Valencia win at 37% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Real Madrid – Sevilla prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Sevilla vs Valencia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Valencia to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Sevilla to win.

Our model 37%Bookmakers 22%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Sevilla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sevilla 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Valencia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Valencia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sevilla vs Valencia 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sevilla vs Valencia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
SevillaSevilla1
ValenciaValencia0

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

136%
X27%
237%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Sevilla31%69%64%36%
Valencia30%70%63%37%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Sevilla85%15%95%5%
Valencia85%15%95%5%

1st Half

125%
X50%
225%

1st Score

146%
X8%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

20%

1-1

18%

2-2

18%

X-1

14%

X-2

14%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

0-1

9.3%

1-0

9.2%

0-0

8.1%

1-2

8.0%

2-1

7.9%

0-2

6.0%

2-0

5.9%

2-2

5.5%

3-1

3.7%

1-3

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Real Madrid – Sevilla prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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