Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
Atlético Madrid2–1
Real MadridOn these chances Atlético Madrid would usually take 2.5 points and Real Madrid 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Real Madrid.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Atlético Madrid had more than twice the shots on target
Atlético Madrid
Real Madrid
9
Shots on target
3
4
Big chances
1
3
Corners
1
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
61%
Possession
39%
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Real Madrid to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Madrid 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Real Madrid 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Real Madrid 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Atlético Madrid2
Real Madrid1Winner
X2 64%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Atlético Madrid2Real Madrid1Winner
X2 64%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 36% | 64% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 56% | 44% |
| 25% | 75% | 53% | 47% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
2-2
21%
X-1
15%
X-X
15%
X-2
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.0%
0-1
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
4.1%
0-0
4.0%
2-3
3.9%
3-2
3.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid — Recent Form
Atlético Madrid have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Real Madrid have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético MadridReal MadridOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Real MadridAtlético MadridBoth Teams to Score
Real MadridAtlético MadridOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Real MadridAtlético MadridOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Real MadridAtlético MadridFirst Half Result
Real MadridAtlético MadridCorrect Score
Real MadridAtlético Madrid