Toluca vs León 4-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga MX - Season 2025/2026 (Round 17)
Toluca vs León — Liga MX Prediction Accuracy
Season 2025/2026 · Round 17 · Clausura
Full-Time Result →
Toluca+40.1% Strongly above implied probability
León+20.5% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 43.9% Implied Probability
Both Teams To Score →
Toluca-10% Near implied probability
León-2.2% Near implied probability
┊ 54.1% Implied Probability
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →
Toluca-23.5% Below implied probability
León-1.3% Near implied probability
┊ 53.6% Implied Probability
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →
Toluca-3.9% Near implied probability
León+15% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 61.4% Implied Probability
First Half Result →
Toluca+27.5% Strongly above implied probability
León+0% Above implied probability
┊ 38.2% Implied Probability
Correct Score →
TolucaLeónOur AI model tracks prediction accuracy for Toluca and León across 6 betting markets. The cards above compare per-team accuracy against a bookmaker-implied probability baseline for each betting market.
Full-Time Result predictions for Toluca hit at 62% accuracy — that's 40.1% above the bookmaker baseline of 43.9%, suggesting genuine betting value.
On the other hand, Over/Under 2.5 Goals predictions for Toluca sit 23.5% below the bookmaker baseline — pricing is sharper here, so extra caution is warranted.
Toluca vs León 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Toluca vs León. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
| 1 | 59% | |
| X | 20% | |
| 2 | 21% |
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
| 56% | 44% | 78% | 22% |
| 1 | 56% | |
| X | 32% | |
| 2 | 12% |
| 1-1 | 1-X | X-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52% | 3% | 19% | |
| 2-2 | 2-X | X-2 | |
| 5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 1-2 | X-X | 2-1 | |
| 1% | 9% | 3% |
| 1 | 71% | |
| X | 5% | |
| 2 | 23% |
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18% | 82% | 45% | 55% |
 | 46% | 54% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
| 70% | 30% | 86% | 14% |
| 91% | 9% | 97% | 3% |
| 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| 1 | 59% | |
| X | 20% | |
| 2 | 21% |
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
| 56% | 44% | 78% | 22% |
| 1 | 56% | |
| X | 32% | |
| 2 | 12% |
| 1-1 | 1-X | X-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52% | 3% | 19% | |
| 2-2 | 2-X | X-2 | |
| 5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 1-2 | X-X | 2-1 | |
| 1% | 9% | 3% |
| 1 | 71% | |
| X | 5% | |
| 2 | 23% |
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 45% | 55% |
| 46% | 54% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
| 70% | 30% | 86% | 14% |
| 91% | 9% | 97% | 3% |
| 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% |
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Toluca vs León — Prediction Form & Streaks
León have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table. Toluca have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1th in the table. Toluca have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1th in the table. León have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table.
Our football prediction algorithm has been reading León well in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, landing 5 correct predictions in a row. This level of consistency suggests a strong betting opportunity worth considering.
Full-Time Result
TolucaLeónBoth Teams To Score
TolucaLeónOver/Under 2.5 Goals
TolucaLeónOver/Under 3.5 Goals
TolucaLeónFirst Half Result
TolucaLeónCorrect Score
TolucaLeónToluca & León Teams in Best Form
LeónTolucaTolucaLeón